{"id":16100,"date":"2026-08-21T23:52:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-21T23:52:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aacyf.org\/?p=16100"},"modified":"2026-08-22T19:16:43","modified_gmt":"2026-08-22T19:16:43","slug":"super-el-nino-and-its-impact-on-our-weather-in-california-and-across-the-u-s","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aacyf.org\/?p=16100","title":{"rendered":"\u201c\u8d85\u7ea7\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u201d\u6765\u88ad\uff1f2026\u5e74\u51ac\u5b63\u52a0\u5dde\u6216\u8fce\u5386\u53f2\u6027\u5f3a\u964d\u96e8\uff0c\u6cbf\u6d77\u6d2a\u6c34\u4e0e\u5c71\u4f53\u6ed1\u5761\u98ce\u9669\u4e0a\u5347"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>AACYF\/\u6d1b\u6749\u77f6\uff082026\u5e748\u670821\u65e5\uff09<\/strong><br><strong>By: Richard Ren<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b63\u5728\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u5f3a\u7684\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u6709\u73b0\u4ee3\u6c14\u8c61\u8bb0\u5f55\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u5f3a\u7684\u4e00\u6279\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14\u00b7\u65af\u6e29\uff08Daniel Swain\uff098\u670821\u65e5\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u7fa4\u5a92\u4f53\uff08ACoM\uff09\u65b0\u95fb\u7b80\u62a5\u4f1a(Super El Ni\u00f1o and its Impact on Our Weather \u2013 In California and Across the U.S.)\u4e0a\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u6b63\u5728\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u8f6e\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u4eca\u51ac\u52a0\u5dde\u4e43\u81f3\u5168\u7f8e\u7684\u964d\u96e8\u3001\u6c14\u6e29\u3001\u964d\u96ea\u4ee5\u53ca\u98ce\u66b4\u8def\u5f84\u4ea7\u751f\u660e\u663e\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u65af\u6e29\u957f\u671f\u7814\u7a76\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4ee5\u53ca\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u6696\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u662f\u52a0\u5dde\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u526f\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u3001\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b66\u519c\u4e1a\u4e0e\u81ea\u7136\u8d44\u6e90\u90e8\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5927\u6c14\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34\u3002\u4ed6\u8fd8\u901a\u8fc7\u201cWeather West\u201d\u5e73\u53f0\u4e3b\u6301\u6bcf\u5468\u6c14\u5019\u4e0e\u5929\u6c14\u516c\u5f00\u95ee\u7b54\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"video-container\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Super El Ni\u00f1o and its Impact on Our Weather | News Briefing | 8\/21\/26\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/D1fL6mFISgo?feature=oembed&#038;wmode=opaque\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Daniel Swain<\/strong>, Climate Scientist, UCLA; National Center for Atmospheric Research; The Nature Conservancy; Author: Weather West Blog<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NOAA\u5927\u5e45\u4e0a\u8c03\u52a0\u5dde\u51ac\u5b63\u964d\u96e8\u9884\u671f<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u6d77\u6d0b\u548c\u5927\u6c14\u7ba1\u7406\u5c40\uff08NOAA\uff09\u672c\u5468\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u5b63\u8282\u9884\u6d4b\u663e\u793a\uff0c2026\u5e7412\u6708\u81f32027\u5e742\u6708\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5730\u533a\u51fa\u73b0\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6b63\u5e38\u6c34\u5e73\u964d\u6c34\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u660e\u663e\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5357\u52a0\u5dde\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e00\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0eNOAA\u4e0a\u4e2a\u6708\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u5c55\u671b\u76f8\u6bd4\u51fa\u73b0\u660e\u663e\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6b64\u524d\uff0c\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u964d\u96e8\u6982\u7387\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u5357\u52a0\u5dde\uff0c\u52a0\u5dde\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u65e7\u91d1\u5c71\u6e7e\u533a\uff0c\u5219\u57fa\u672c\u5904\u4e8e\u201c\u673a\u4f1a\u76f8\u5f53\u201d\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u3002\u800c\u6700\u65b0\u9884\u6d4b\u5df2\u7ecf\u6269\u5927\u5230\u5168\u5dde\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5730\u533a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b27\u6d32\u4e2d\u671f\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6b64\u524d\u4e5f\u5df2\u7ecf\u4f5c\u51fa\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u53732026\u81f32027\u5e74\u51ac\u5b63\u52a0\u5dde\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6b63\u5e38\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u964d\u96e8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NOAA\u76ee\u524d\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8f6e\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u5728\u5317\u534a\u7403\u79cb\u5b63\u548c\u51ac\u5b63\u5f62\u6210\u201c\u975e\u5e38\u5f3a\u201d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8d85\u8fc790%\u3002NOAA\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c7\u6708\u8d64\u9053\u4e1c\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u6d77\u6e29\u5f02\u5e38\u5df2\u7ecf\u8d85\u8fc72\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u6d77\u57df\u6d77\u6c34\u6e29\u5ea6\u5f02\u5e38\u751a\u81f3\u8fbe\u52303\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u5de6\u53f3\uff1b\u6d77\u9762\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u5f02\u5e38\u6e29\u5ea6\u6700\u9ad8\u8fbe\u5230\u7ea610\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NOAA\u7684\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u5f3a\u5ea6\u6982\u7387\u8d44\u6599\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u663e\u793a\uff0c2026\u5e74\u79cb\u51ac\u5b63\u51fa\u73b0\u6307\u6570\u8fbe\u5230\u6216\u8d85\u8fc72\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u7684\u5f3a\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u6982\u7387\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d2026\u5e749\u6708\u81f311\u6708\u8fbe\u523093%\uff0c10\u6708\u81f312\u6708\u8fbe\u523095%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NOAA\u65d7\u4e0b\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u6d41\u4f53\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba48\u67086\u65e5\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u540c\u6837\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u8f6e\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u589e\u5f3a\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u572810\u6708\u81f3\u660e\u5e741\u6708\u4e4b\u95f4\u8fbe\u5230\u5cf0\u503c\uff1b\u6240\u670930\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u6210\u5458\u90fd\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5176\u5cf0\u503c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5f3a\u7684\u4e00\u6279\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ade\u4e89\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8fd9\u6b21\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u7279\u522b\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\uff1f<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u65af\u6e29\u5728\u65b0\u95fb\u7b80\u62a5\u4f1a\u4e0a\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u6e90\u4e8e\u8d64\u9053\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\u6d77\u6c34\u5f02\u5e38\u5347\u6e29\u3002\u6e29\u6696\u6d77\u6c34\u901a\u8fc7\u84b8\u53d1\u5411\u5927\u6c14\u91ca\u653e\u66f4\u591a\u6c34\u6c7d\u548c\u70ed\u91cf\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u70ed\u5e26\u5730\u533a\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u96f7\u66b4\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5c06\u80fd\u91cf\u8f93\u9001\u5230\u5927\u6c14\u5c42\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u79cd\u80fd\u591f\u63a8\u52a8\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u7ee7\u7eed\u589e\u5f3a\u7684\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u76ee\u524d\u5f02\u5e38\u9ad8\u6e29\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u8d64\u9053\u4e1c\u592a\u5e73\u6d0b\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e00\u4f4d\u7f6e\u5c24\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p 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